Sunday, 14 June 2020

Planning a Pull-back Trade

I have been categorizing my trades as

  • Pullback Trades
  • Range break-out Trades
  • Reversal Trades
Let's discuss Pull-back trades today.
To illustrate, I am taking the most recent example of Jindalpoly
On EOD 9.6.2020

And on 10.6.2020

Now lets take a Probable Trade example--- Trades About to Happen: 

Step1: Locating a trending Stock:
Trend is time-frame specicific. There are different ways to define it,but the simplest is to look at the plain chart and see if it is making  Higher-Highs and Higher-Lows on the selected t/f. If yes then we can call it an Uptrending Stock. Vice-versa for downtrending Stocks.
Steeper the Incline/Decline , stronger would be the trend.
If you have difficulty in doing it through bar/candlestick charts,do it with the help of line chart.

I have picked up Britannia for today's illustration



Step-2: Locating a Pullback
As price never moves in a straight line because of periodic booking of profits,all stocks tend to show dips while moving in an Uptrend. Ideas is to locate these dips and catch it on that point where it is ready to resume its original trend. 
For it,following points can be marked:
  •  Previous Resistances which would act as Support now 
  • Trendlines
  • Preferred EMA/SMA-- usually 34/50
  • Divergence in lower t/f RSI/MACD





Step-3: Locating Entry point & Stop-loss:

One way of entry is through the following bullish Candlestick set-ups in Daily Chart




However, Entry and Stop-loss are best defined through Bullish Candle-stick set-ups in one t/f lower, i.e. if we have chosen Daily t/f for locating trend & pull-back then after Step-2,we have to look for Bullish Candlestick set-ups in 75min chart. If this bullish candlestick set-up occurs after positive divergence,it adds to strength as it confirms that the pull-back has lost its strength and the stock is ready to move in higher t/f trend direction.
So lets look into 75min chart


This chart tells me that if on Monday,follow-up buying fails to take price above Friday high then there is a chance of pullback continuing upto 3175 where we shall have to revisit the charts to look for positive divergence and bullish candlestick set-up for best entries.

Weekly Chart:

Price has broken-out into all-time-high territory and revisting/retesting previous resistances. RSI has yet to break-out of previous swing high --- once that happens,very fast upmove would be seen. Till that time, depending upon overall market environment, some consolidation at curent levels may take place for a couple of days.

Other stocks with similar set-ups:




7 comments:

  1. Sir In very easy way you illustrated an Complicated Topic . Beautiful Explaination sir .

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  2. Loved the way u explain, bite by bite.

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  3. Thanks for the Good day Biscuits. I was planning to buy Britannia ..but shall wait for a day or two ....

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  4. Thank you sir for sharing this.

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  5. Sir,
    Simply explain HH-HL.Keep it up.
    Regards

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  6. Thank you for explaining this concept in simple words and in a step by step process. :)

    ReplyDelete